The India-Pakistan May crisis

 

The latest iteration of the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan, which occurred from May 7 to 10, 2025, may have signalled the onset of a new arrangement in the balance of power within South Asia, with China at the forefront.

Recently, the delicate diplomatic relations between these two neighbouring nuclear adversaries deteriorated significantly following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which is located in Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025. On that day, five unidentified terrorists opened fire on tourists, killing 26 and injuring 20 others, all of whom, except for one, were Indian nationals. Initially, the TRF (The Resistance Front a Kashmiri group that has been designated by India as a terrorist organization) claimed responsibility for the attack; however, on April 26, they retracted their statement and denied any involvement or accountability for it. Two days after the massacre, the police in Indian-administered Kashmir released a notice naming three alleged suspects from Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, (a Pakistani terrorist organization), two of whom were reported to be Pakistani nationals. The police did not specify how these men were identified. Islamabad has denied any connection to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam and the broader allegations of sponsoring terrorism in India. As of now, it remains unclear who is responsible for the terrorist attack in Pahalgam.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has defended its incursion into Pakistani territory on May 7 as a retaliatory action in response to the Pahalgam attacks, explicitly accusing Pakistan of facilitating terrorism within India. The rhetoric of the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) government is significantly shaped by the ideological apparatus of RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) and has evolved into one characterized by attacking without factual verification of the parties involved. This rhetoric was evident during the aerial confrontation between India and Pakistan in 2019, which followed a suicide bombing in Kashmir in February of that year, and more recently during the events of May 2025, referred to by India as Operation Sindoor (named after the red mark that Hindu women apply to their foreheads). This operation started with the launching of Indian missiles targeting civilian locations, which this country's intelligence had identified as terrorist hideouts, situated in mainland Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (Pakistan-administered Kashmir). The situation intensified with reciprocal strikes and India conducting drone attacks on Pakistani urban areas.

The rise in terrorist attacks, protests, and militancy in Indian-administered Kashmir followed the revocation of the constitutional autonomy of this Muslim-majority region by Modi's Hindu nationalist government in 2019, thereby placing it under the direct control of New Delhi.

The aerial combat that occurred on the night of May 6-7, 2025 showcased the superiority, in actual combat, of the Chinese-designed J-10Cs, utilized by the Pakistani Air Force, along with their PL-15E missiles, over the French Dassault Rafales of the Indian Air Force. This was the first time that the Chinese military equipment was tested in real combat against European designs, which has sparked considerable attention among weapons and security analysts in the West. China is a crucial ally of Pakistan and its biggest military equipment supplier. Chinese military establishment and government have not commented on the J-10C success claims. Most of the attention to this issue was brought up by Chinese social media.

After four days of crisis, the United States brokered a ceasefire agreement between the two warring countries, which has been repeatedly breached by restrained border skirmishes over the last few weeks, rendering the situation highly unstable and concerning from an international security perspective. Considering the strategic implications of this conflict, various regional players, in addition to China, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Russia, have been observing the efforts of both parties to establish and uphold the ceasefire agreement. However, after a month of tense exchanges and a fragile truce, the international community has gleaned some valuable insights regarding this conflict, particularly the unprecedented increase in geographical reach due to the utilization of sophisticated technologies, the social media exploitation to generate a war of misinformation and disinformation creating confusion among the populations on both sides, and lastly, the emerging Chinese influence in the region through its proxies.